Good weekend. Plus some thoughts.

Swansea are almost certainly out of it (6 behind with 9 to play for)
They want to lock up/consolidate a playoff spot.
Might rest players in certain spots to make sure they are ready for the playoffs.
Thy wont risk injuries to certain players who are carrying niggles.

Reading are almost out of it, they need to win all 3 games to have an outside chance. (82 points)

Same as Swansea, they want to be strong for the playoffs as they almost have a place locked up.
They may already have enough points for a playoff spot, 1 more point locks it up meaning they may play for draw in a game knowing they cant be caught.

Realistically its looking like we need to win 2 of the last 3 to get to 83 points.

Its been the magic target since Jan and hasnt changed that much.

Last night the bookies gave us around 60-65% chance of promotion after the vig (4/6)

That looked close to spot on odds FWIW

25% came from locking up a playoff spot and 35-40% was from getting 2nd.

With cardiff, reading and swansea dropping points our true odds of promotion should increase to around the 65-75% range.

Posted By: usacanary on April 23rd 2011 at 18:12:38

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