Listen Kids...............I ts tilty table time........

Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee.

QPR 91
Swansea 84
Cardiff 83
NF 80
Norwich 80
Leeds 73
Burnley 72
Leicester 70
Hull 66
Reading 66
Watford 64
Milwall 64

I should really add Portsmouth to the above table.

Still predicting around 83 points needed for 2nd and around 75 points for a playoff place.

I thought I would do a semi- scientific evaluation of the chances of teams grabbing auto promotion.

I first ran a monte carlo simulation based on the current strength of each team.

I then ran a simulation given the weakness of each team they have to play (opponents current position)
Then adjusted for opponents home vs away form in each match up.

The bottom line is this.....All teams 6th (leeds) and below have less than a combined 10% probability of getting 2nd place based on form and difficulty of remaing games. (opposition form)

Basically leaving around 90% probabilty that the top 2 spots are between just 5 teams including Norwich.

Before anyone asks....... yes I incuded Burnley.
They have 2 games in hand, which mean they will average 3 points given current form.
Even if we adjust for a better manager we couldnt give them more than 3.5/4 max from the two games.

Before anyone goes off on one..... the whole idea is to predict what will happen based on the data we have.
i e If the table doesnt currently lie then roughly teams will grab the same PPG going forward.

Obviously this wont happen in every case, some will do better, some will do worse....... if we could predict the score exactly in every game....... you could buy Norwich city in 3 weeks with your gambling winnings.

What people might no grasp is the difficulty teams playing catchup have with 12 games to go.

Teams like Leeds, Leicester and Burnley have to catch up teams such as Norwich,Swansea, Cardiff and NF......... yet we play each other, so somebody must gain some points from the match up.
We have to play NF and Swansea and NF have to play Swansea......
Its hard to play catch up when other teams above you are guranteed to pick up points.

Posted By: usacanary on March 1st 2011 at 22:54:14

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