No.

You are just burning money over the long run.

Example, lets say you have a 10 pound free bet to keep the numbers simple and assume no juice.

You bet an evens side with the free play to win 10

You bet the other side evens 5 pound to hedge.

Yes you are 100% guranteed to win 5 pound whoever wins.
You gain half the value of the free play (not good)

Now lets say you bet Burnley at 25/1

Lets assume the odds are spot on and they win exactly one in 25 times they play.

So over the long run of 100 tries you will lose 96 times but win 4 x 250 = 1000

Which works out closer to the 10 pound per bet instead of 5

Obviously there is some bookies juice involved but you will probably get back over 95% of the free play value over the long run.

The same applies to roulette in a casino.

Never hedge red/black as you will only get less than 50% of the free play value.
Bet 1 number straight up at 35 to 1 and get back over 90% of the free play value.

Posted By: usacanary on January 16th 2010 at 00:33:43

Message Thread

utter madness (NCFC) - ingi, Jan 15, 18:59:36
- Who did you get the free bet from? (n/m) (NCFC) - megson, Jan 15, 19:09:31
  - betfair (n/m) (NCFC) - ingi, Jan 15, 19:25:22
  - Try this (NCFC) - conker, Jan 15, 19:15:10
    - always read the small print (NCFC) - Charles21, Jan 15, 20:19:02
      - If you know how to bet with free bets correctly it is a 100% risk free profit maker (NCFC) - grimsbycanary3, Jan 15, 23:04:40
        
        it's usually more effort than it's worth (NCFC) - Charles21, Jan 16, 00:09:34
        
        Took me 3 weeks to win just short of a grand (NCFC) - grimsbycanary3, Jan 16, 08:33:17
      - I set half of these deals up with them (n/m) (NCFC) - conker, Jan 15, 20:24:34
        
        ? (n/m) (NCFC) - Charles21, Jan 15, 20:31:20
    - Ah! I'm in quidco didn't think of that! Cheers fella (n/m) (NCFC) - megson, Jan 15, 19:20:09
      - There are others but Jaxx is one of the better offers on (NCFC) - conker, Jan 15, 19:26:43
        
        that's not bad! (n/m) (NCFC) - megson, Jan 15, 19:31:14
- Longshots are the absolute mathematicaly correct way to play free bets. (NCFC) - usacanary, Jan 15, 19:09:23
  - But you should then lay them off (NCFC) - Kangol Canary, Jan 15, 22:17:58
    - No. (NCFC) - usacanary, Jan 16, 00:33:43
  - Appart from match betting of course (n/m) (NCFC) - grimsbycanary3, Jan 15, 19:49:56

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