The Ruddy debate

Obviously this one has been a hot topic and yesterday I joined Jim in suggesting it was time to do the previously unthinkable, and give the big man a rest. Quite rightly, people have asked what evidence I was relying on to support that. And of course, I didn't have any, it was just a bit of a gut reaction from what I've seen this season, and yesterday's cock up.

Inspired by Brandonio, I've just now pulled some stats off the premier league website. Specifically I've collected the goals conceded and shots saved data for each club, as of just now. Doesn't say what dates are covered, but it clearly includes yesterday's results as it has us down as conceding 23 (which is correct as of now). Probably doesn't include today's results. I also haven't taken any account of clubs that rotate keepers. Obviously, for us, this doesn't matter as Ruddy has played every league game. But for other clubs, I'm using the average of whoever has played.

I think goals and saves is reasonable data to use in assessing a keeper's performance, as it only covers the attempts that would have gone in but for the keeper, or did go in. Forming the percentage of [saves] to [goals and saves] therefore tells you how many of these on target attempts the keeper prevents from turning into a goal.

Equally, its a far from complete set of data, as it doesn't cover handling, communication, distribution, sweeping up, kicking etc. Its also fair to say that some teams have thoroughly crap defences and there are times when the best keeper in the world is helpless as the defence leaves the door wide open. All that I take as true, and fair comment.

Nevertheless, in my view, the stats i'm presenting, for me, still provide an indication of performance, especially as we're now 11 games in.

So, here's the analysis.

- the average PL saved percentage is 69%
- best is 83% (Arsenal), Stoke (Butland) are second (79%)
- worst is 50% (Bournemouth - Boruc and Federici are both s**t keepers if you ask me)
- Ruddy is at 57%, which ranks him 18th
- since you'll probably ask, Southampton are 19th (55%)

For me, this IS evidence of my intuition. Ruddy isn't saving much. Add in some high profile mistakes (for me, yesterday and West Ham for starters) and the case is building for him to be dropped.

To put it in perspective, if Ruddy was performing at an average level, he wouldn't have saved 31 of the 54 shots on target, but just over 37, i.e. we would have conceded 6 fewer goals than we have. We would have more points on the board, for sure, than we do.

To provide further perspective, Jack Butland has faced four more shots on target than Ruddy, and has let in just 12 goals vs Ruddy's 23. Now that may not be fair, because he's looking amazing this season (and all the other points about the type of chance being conceded mattering a lot). But suffice it to say that Ruddy is miles away from that level of performance. If we had Butland in goal, these stats suggest we would have conceded just 11 goals so far this season.

Final comment. I don't claim this is definitive evidence to warrant a dropping. In particular, Rudd has only had a couple of cup games and some loan experience, and SAN sees him in training every day. Maybe he isn't any better, and might be worse. But Ruddy is not performing well, and that's a problem. The question of whether he should continue to keep his place is well and truly on the table. If its not Rudd, then maybe a GK needs to be signed as a priority.

Posted By: Under soil heating on November 1st 2015 at 15:33:11

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